Monday was the first day of week 1 of the PHI prototype tool experiment in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed. This experiment is bringing together NWS forecasters, NSSL and OU/CIMMS scientists, emergency managers, broadcasters, and social science researchers from around the country to investigate methodologies to produce and use probabilistic hazard information (PHI) related to hazards from thunderstorms. The image below shows the team in its initial orientation meeting.
The team was going through initial orientation for PHI production and evaluation as severe storms were rapidly developing over central Oklahoma Monday afternoon. Forecasters produced test experimental PHI forecasts for the supercell that produced the intense tornado in Garvin and Murray counties during the mid afternoon hours as part of the group’s training in preparation for the more formal testing the rest of this week. This testing will go into full gear this afternoon, with the team working an archived case as well as realtime weather, likely focusing on expected severe weather either in the Ohio Valley region or in Texas.