PHI in the tropics

On the first day of the third and final week of the PHI Prototype Experiment, Tropical Storm Colin was impacting Florida during the afternoon hours when the initial shakeout operational session was underway.  Hence, this region was selected as the operations area for the realtime period of operations.  Forecasters generated probabilistic hazard guidance for potential tornadoes, damaging winds and lightning with squalls and convective cells moving across Florida in association with Colin.  This included experimenting with producing lower probability tornado forecasts for small supercells which are common with landfalling tropical systems.

PHI plume and associated NWS HazSimp based text for a squall with rotation near Port Charlotte, FL.
PHI plume and associated NWS HazSimp based text for a squall with rotation east of Port Charlotte, FL.

Emergency managers and broadcasters evaluated using the PHI to make decisions about realistic scenarios such as closing schools, cancelling events, etc..  During the end of day debrief, these users discussed potential pros and cons of the PHI paradigm for tropical cyclone situations along with the researchers and NWS forecasters.

End of day debrief after HWT operations for Tropical Storm Colin.
End of day debrief after HWT operations for Tropical Storm Colin.

 

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