The observations in this IOP will commence Thursday morning immediately after the passage of an expected round of morning convection. This morning round is expected to be marginally severe at most, owing to a complete lack of low-level CAPE. Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to destabilize rapidly, with moderate low-level shear and strong deep shear supportive of supercells. Afternoon supercells are possible in the VORTEX-SE domain, especially after 2 PM. Severe storm activity is expected to increase in the evening as low-level flow accelerates and CAPE is maintained, and persist through part or much of the night. The main window for VORTEX-SE observations is expected to be 2 PM – 2 AM for storm studies, and earlier (perhaps 10 AM to 10 PM) for environment evolution studies. The likely focus will be NW AL, centered toward the Courtland/Florence region.
A morning science planning meeting, and short briefing, will be held at UAH SWIRLL at 9 AM. Deployments will occur sometime after that planning meeting. All participants are encouraged to get as much rest as possible on Wed night because of the expected long duration and nighttime observations.
Media: try to attend the 9 AM planning meeting where you can meet and discuss your opportunities with the scientists.
Beyond this IOP… we did not discuss the long range in today’s briefing, but will resume that discussion at a future briefing. Be aware that we are likely to have another “hard down” period with no briefings for a few days after this IOP unless the weather dictates otherwise. Watch this blog for later information.