IOP Watch

We continue to watch for a short window of opportunity sometime toward next weekend, when an upper low weakens and lifts northeast from TX.  There is a chance that a weak warm front will exist near the observing area, with light east-southeast winds beneath strong southerly flow aloft, leading to sufficient low-level shear for tornadoes.  An IOP decision is anticipated around Tuesday.

The remainder of March appears to offer additional deployment chances, but the forecast uncertainty continues to be very large.