STATUS: IOP Watch

We continue to watch the forecast evolution of the lifting/weakening cutoff that will become a negative tilt shortwave late this week in the south, crossing AL early in the weekend.  At this time, the forecast is for negligible chances for tornadoes with this system, primarily because of muddled and weak low-level wind profiles.  We are monitoring to determine if there might be a short window of somewhat more favorable conditions.  If so, studying the evolution of CAPE and shear in this scenario might be scientifically valuable.

Following the Friday/Saturday event, another fairly strong shortwave should pass near or north of AL on the 14th; the development of adequate CAPE remains uncertain.

A final IOP decision will be made in briefing tomorrow, Tue 8 March.